NY Update.

By Menphrad, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3949347

If there’s a word for the numbers this week, it is : Plateau.

The numbers for the county, the state and to some extent the US as a whole seem to have leveled off after another surge over the holidays. Unfortunately, we were already at a high level, and have now pushed to a higher level which we are for the most part maintaining.

Hopefully, as the vaccine continues to be rolled out and perhaps people have less gatherings in person during the coldest winter months, we’ll see the numbers start to actually drop. The big unknown, though…

NY Update. Happy New Year, everyone! I hope that by mid-year, this virus will be truly fading and that we’ll be able to return to some semblance of where things were pre-COVID. But it is apparent now that there’s a still a lot of tunnel before we begin to emerge into the light (especially if our government leaders can’t get a plan together for vaccination that works rapidly).

I apologize for the shortages of updates during the holiday, but with a new puppy and a lot more end-of-year work than expected, I just could not get any new updates out.

NY Update. There’s a little bit of good news to share — the numbers in Westchester have stabilized a bit. We were shooting upwards there for about a month, and while our baseline is now higher than it was, the sharp trend upward seems to have stopped, at least for the moment.

The testing-positivity figure is now around 5.9% (30-day chart):

NY Update. 79 years ago, the nation lost 2403 souls in the attack on Pearl Harbor. As always, we remember their sacrifice on this day.

It’s not really appropriate to compare national tragedies, because each is caused by their own unique factors and each deserve their own attention.

Still, as humans we tend to struggle with contextualizing large numbers, so I would only offer that over the last week, in this country, we have lost on average 2209 per day to COVID. There have been at least 280,000 deaths from COVID in the US so far. …

There is no reason to sugar-coat this. We are seeing a continuing rise in COVID infection, and it is a serious rise. …The numbers are not good.

— Westchester County Executive George Latimer

NY Update. This is more of an update than a full report, but given the depressing numbers for Westchester that were released today I thought it was important to pass them along and correct my overly-optimistic post from yesterday.

Today, the state reported that Westchester had 421 against 8343 tests, for a testing-positive rate of 5.05%. …

NY Update. Sorry for the slow reporting — it was a combination of a busy week at work and hoping to get numbers that would give a clear sense of the trends in Westchester.

I think the numbers here might have flattened out a bit, rather than continuing the steep climb northward. At least, the upward surge is not as steep.

In terms of new cases, three weeks ago we had about 1000 cases in a week, but the following week those more than doubled, to 2100. But over the last seven days, we had 2376 new cases. …

Daily NY update. Daily increase in Westchester has gone down. Cuomo says Westchester has slowed what was an exponential increase. He also said that the doubling time for hospitalization in NYC has decreased — a few days ago it was doubling every two days, now doubling only every 4.7 days. So some good news.

Comments [Names abbreviated to protect the innocent]

RG Some good news for Westchester, NYC and the rest of the state, not so much

Today’s numbers. In Westchester, 18,000 tests have been administered (3282 yesterday), and we have 3891 positive cases (remember there’s a lag between tests administered and results). Increase of about 1000 since yesterday. NYC now has 14,904 cases, NY State has 25,665 total. Cuomo says numbers are doubling every three days, so they think the apex will be sooner but much higher than previously thought — with a need for between 110,000 and 140,000 hospital beds (the state has 50,000) in the next two weeks. From the raw numbers, it looks to me like Westchester cases may be doubling every two…

New cases in Westchester yesterday: 1021. Biggest daily increase thus far. double that of the prior day. Hopefully we are nearing the peak here.

Comments [Names abbreviated to protect the innocent]

SS1. This is not good

CF. Thanks, the sharply rising numbers are probably due to more testing. I am still hoping we will figure out soon if there is a model that can make educated assumptions about the number of actual infections — reported numbers and actual infections may not be correlated which could be one of the explanations for the widely different mortality rates in various countries. …

NY Update. I am a bit more convinced today that the surge in cases we are seeing in Westchester is not entirely — maybe even not primarily — caused by the micro cluster in Port Chester.

There were 242 new cases in Westchester yesterday, on 5538 tests, yielding a testing-positivity number of 4.38%, which is an increase over yesterday. Even on a rolling seven-day average, we are now over 3%.

As I mentioned in my post yesterday, Gov. Cuomo said Westchester is relatively flat without the Port Chester hot spot. That seems overly optimistic to me. …

Lance Koonce

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