March 25, 2020

Daily NY update. Daily increase in Westchester has gone down. Cuomo says Westchester has slowed what was an exponential increase. He also said that the doubling time for hospitalization in NYC has decreased — a few days ago it was doubling every two days, now doubling only every 4.7 days. So some good news.

Comments [Names abbreviated to protect the innocent]

RG Some good news for Westchester, NYC and the rest of the state, not so much

RG

SS2 3% positive patients landing in ICU, that is bad. The 12% hops rate of +cases exactly matches the MMWR data from 3/16, so that is a valid percentage now.

SS2 Current stats at [HOSPITAL NAME REDACTED]: 115 Covid+: 54 in ICU, all vented; 61 on floor; and 16 Covid-suspicious awaiting results.

CF The flattening of the confirmed cases is probably due to testing limits but the slowing in hospitalization growth is encouraging. I agree that public health concerns need to weighed against macroeconomic costs — we do that all the time — and based on what I hear, a certain level of triaging happens even during normal times even though it’s usually not called out as such (if a coma patient has no plausible chance of ever regaining consciousness it is not illegitimate to take cost into account when the decision is made how long life support should be extended). Having said that, it seems as if we have to keep what we are doing for more than another 3 weeks to avoid a bigger humanitarian crisis and we need to figure out how widespread and dangerous this thing really is

AO

SS Testing data for the sheet